The changing politics of Christian Estrosi

The newspaper also sites Estrosi’s apparent u-turn over his calls to hold a national debate on Islam and secularism.

In January, just days after Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was ousted in Tunisia, Estrosi declared that praying in the street should be banded, claiming that it breached the fundamentals of secularism. His remarks came after local Muslims had spilled out onto the streets of Nice for Friday prayers (many of whom were praying for families and friends in North Africa and the Middle East). He called for a debate on the place of religion in France.

Then, in a seemingly somewhat hypocritical move, he was snapped only two weeks later in a friendly tete-a-tete with the Pope at the Vatican. Reading between the lines, it could be assumed that what Estrosi wanted was not a debate about religion and the state in general but rather more specifically the postion of Islam in French society.

However, Estrosi, who also sits as an MP in the National Assembly, insisted at the end of February that a debate on Islam was "absolutely not a priority." "We cannot debate secularism at the risk of stigmatising Islam, whilst the world has its eyes turned towards the Arabic world’s fight for democracy," he added.

The former minister for industry made his comments on Europe 1 radio, just two days before the foreign minister Michèle Alliot-Marie resigned over her mishandling of the Tunisian uprising.

Whether this was just Estrosi distancing himself from a sinking political ship or a shrew manoeuvre away from the former minister, it is unclear, however the mayor of Nice has started to distance himself from other members of his party.

This week, for example, in an interview with Nice Matin, Estrosi attacked the UMP general secretary Jean-François Copé’s management of the party. Copé, who is widely regarded as the front-runner for the UMP nomination in the 2017 presidential elections, has been the architect of what Estrosi has described as a single-minded approach to policy. Estrosi calls it "Copéism".

A closer look at Mayor Estrosi’s career and it’s evident that he is a politician susceptible to populist sway. He has built his reputation on policies that attract voters, by being tough on crime and immigration for example. He is also regarded as one of the closest followers of ‘Sarkozyism’. Yet in an uncharacteristic move this week, Estrosi turned on big business and accused one in four companies on the CAC 40 (top 40 listed companies on the French stock exchange) of avoiding paying corporation tax. The former minister for industry has already collected signatures from 85 members of parliament in an attempt to organise an inquiry into the issue.

Since then, he has focussed his attention on attacking the French petrol supplier Total. He suggested that the company, which made 10 billion euros of profit last year, should lower their prices at the pump and give customers more buying power. The most striking anomaly about Estrosi’s grievance is that he is not the first French politician to raise this question. Back in 2009 the Socialist Party politician Ségolène Royal suggested taxing Total and other oil companies on their margin of profit rather than establishing a carbon tax.

"He (Estrosi) has always been a social Gaullist," a member of his staff said. It is clear that Estrosi enjoyed the prestige of his ministerial portfolio and would likely accept should he be offered a greater role in government again. Yet the question remains: Is Estrosi changing tact as part of a grand scheme to make a bid for higher office? Since 1958 five out of six French presidents have come from the right, many running on versions of the populist Gaullist platform, mixing a central focus on the welfare state and nationalised economy with hard-line immigration and crime policies. With his ostensible move to the centre is Estrosi advocating his own run for presidency?

When you combine Estrosi’s seemingly ideological shift with his attack against Jean-François Copé, the ‘heir-apparent’ to Nicolas Sarkozy, he is certainly giving the impression that the thought has at the very least crossed his mind. If this is the case, it might prove wise for Estrosi to remember ‘slowly, slowly catchy monkey’: any challenge he intends to mount to capture the l’Elysée will have to wait at least six years. Given that a week is a long time in politics, six years may well feel like a lifetime.

TD